Propagation News – 5 July 2026

Compiled by G0KYA, G3YLA and G4BAO on 2 July, 2026

Last week we warned you about some large sunspots about to turn into view.

It turns out that regions 4478 and 4479 were even bigger than we thought. The result was that the solar flux index climbed into the low 200s, but we also had solar flares and coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, to contend with.

As well as one X-class flare, the strongest, we also had 13 M-class flares. The X-class event inevitably led to a CME which could potentially affect the ionosphere today, 5 July.

Expect the Kp index to rise with a corresponding fall in the maximum useable frequency, should the Bz swing south.

Note that the solar wind speed has been at more than 400km per second for a few days, but so far its north-facing Bz field has saved us from more HF disruption.

Daytime maximum useable frequencies have been peaking to around 21 to 22MHz, but blanketing Sporadic-E is often preventing signals from reaching the higher F2 layer.

DX to be worked this week includes TJ1GD/P on Mondoleh Island; FO/F6BCW from French Polynesia; JD1BQP in Ogasawara ; OX/DL8JJ in Greenland; TY5FR from Benin; FP/KV1J from St Pierre and Miquelon; FS/F4EQE in Saint Martin; and RT9K, the Arctic Legends IOTA DXpedition.

This weekend also features the Marconi Memorial HF Contest; the Original QRP Contest; the PODXS 070 Club 40m Firecracker Sprint; and the FOC Old School Classic 1960s QSO Party. So, there’s plenty to get your teeth into.

Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index may decline to be in the 140 to 175 range. The Kp index is forecast to be unsettled on Wednesday, 8 July and Thursday, 9 July, perhaps hitting 4. Otherwise, it should be around 2.

VHF and up propagation news

Compiled by G3YLA and G4BAO

The bulk of the coming week will see high pressure centred to the southwest of the British Isles with a broad northwesterly wind across the UK.

This will mean that tropo will remain a feature, especially for southwestern areas up the Irish Sea and down across Biscay to Spain, the Azores and Canaries.

The presence of a weak frontal zone running southeast across the UK will provide some occasional patchy rain, which is not particularly good for rain scatter. We’re not expecting too strong a showing for aurora either. However, look out for a Kp index greater than 5, if that’s your interest.

There are no significant meteor showers at the moment so random activity favouring the early dawn period will probably be the best chance for QSOs.

Sporadic-E has been outstanding recently, especially on digital modes, with long openings up to 144MHz. We are still very much in the main part of the season.

The distribution of the jet streams during the coming week still appears to favour Scandinavia and the Baltic paths for Sporadic-E, but with possible extensions into the Balkans as the jet stream digs south.

The coming period will continue to provide Sporadic-E and tropo on the same day but, due to different causes, should be separable by the direction of the opening. Tropo events will usually be longer in duration, whereas Sporadic-E is more fleeting.

Remember, on a busy day, not all VHF DX will be the result of Sporadic-E and you could be dealing with a hybrid Sporadic-E and tropo day.

EME now, and declination is rising, going positive tomorrow, 6 July so Moon window lengths increase. Path losses are falling, but perigee, the Moon’s closest point to Earth, is still over a week away on Monday, 13 July. 144MHz sky noise is low all week.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News