Propagation News – 8 February 2026

Last week was characterised by a high solar flux index but with a succession of X-class solar flares from active region 4366 on the Sun.

Luckily, none of these resulted in a coronal mass ejection so we got away lightly.

The solar flux index stood at 178 on Tuesday, 3 February with the result that the 10m band was humming. US states logged included Oregon, Nevada, California, Washington and Idaho, all between 1530UTC and 1730UTC.

As we always say, look for a high solar flux index and a low Kp index for DX – in this case a Kp index of between 1 and 2.33.

By comparison, the next day was a washout, possibly thanks to a Kp index increase to 3.67, thanks to a coronal mass ejection, or CME, that passed Earth at 1506UTC.

Poor conditions continued on Thursday, 5 February when the solar wind speed increased to more than 500km per second, the Kp index increased to 5.33 and maximum usable frequencies across a 3,000km path struggled to exceed 20MHz.

Incidentally, February and March are good months for 10m band paths to the US. By April, paths start to drop away and start favouring South America so if you need US states for your Worked All States award, now is the right time.

In the meantime, keep an eye on active region 4366 as it may still have a sting in its tail. This monstrous sunspot group, 15 times the width of Earth, was Earth-centric on Thursday, 5 February.

As always, we recommend visiting solarham.com  for daily updates on space weather.

Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will be in the 130 to 150 range, although the Kp index might be unsettled at times, with an average Kp index of 3. Friday, 13 February is forecast to be particularly unsettled with a Kp index of 5.

VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO

The markedly unsettled weather pattern continues to bring a mix of rain and showers and very strong winds at times plus the threat of snowfall in some eastern and northern areas.

This probably means that tropo will be hard to find during the coming week but leaves us with plenty of chances for rain scatter for GHz operators.

In the solar-terrestrial domain, the disturbed Sun has once again brought a sequence of flares and coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, which has provided frequent auroral alerts as the Kp index has climbed to 4 or more.

Listen for fluttery signals on the LF bands and perhaps ghostly sounding signals on HF and VHF, typically 10m to 2m.

Meteor scatter operators must rely upon random meteor activity but over the whole Earth this can amount to 25 million meteors or meteoroids per day so there is every chance that even random activity could produce a path for you if you have a quiet site.

The mix of meteor activity and a low Kp index can lead to out of season Sporadic-E, given some jet stream weather activity. However, this is currently well south over the Mediterranean in its usual winter position, so any Sporadic-E may be a bit too far to the south to reach from the UK in the short term.

This week, Moon declination is negative all week and falling until Thursday, 12 February. Moon window length and peak elevation follow suit. Path losses are rising again as we reach apogee, the Moon’s furthest point from Earth, on Tuesday, 10 February. 144MHz sky noise is low but rising to high by Thursday, 12 February.

And that’s all from the propagation team this week.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News