Propagation News – 18 January 2026
The Solar Flux Index increased a little last week but was never exceptional. We started at 111 on 11 January and ended at 127 on 15 January – hardly much to get excited about.
11 January also marked the most geomagnetically disturbed day of the week, with the Kp index hitting 5.33. Luckily, the rest of the week was more settled with the Kp index not getting above 3 for the three days up until 15 January.
The Sun also produced two M-class solar flares in that time, but there were no X-class events.
This has meant reasonable HF propagation, with the maximum useable frequency over 3,000km climbing steadily after sunrise, often reaching more than 30MHz at times. But it has been choppy, with many falls below 25MHz during the day. So, if you are a 10m band operator, stick with it as you may find conditions improve after ten minutes or so.
Nighttime maximum useable frequencies are still falling to around 7 to 9MHz over a 3,000km path, often dropping further, leaving the 40m band closed to many.
A quick check of the NCDXF IBP beacon chain around midday on 15 January showed that the 24.930MHz beacons were probably the most active, but DX signals were still a little watery.
The lower bands are still coming up with the goods though, with Hong Kong being reported on 80m using CW. 3D2USU in Fiji has also been worked on the 20m band using CW, according to the CDXC Slack Group.
The KP5/NP3VI Desecheo Island DXpedition has been another sought-after entity this month. The station has been reported as being worked from Europe on the 30m band using FT8, on the 80m band using CW and on the 40m band using USB.
Next week’s DXpeditions include 9X2AW in Rwanda, 5H3DX in Tanzania, P40AA in Aruba, and PJ2ND on Curacao Island. Also reported to be active are VE3VSM/HR9 on Roatan Island in the Caribbean, Z81D in South Sudan, H44MS on the Solomon Islands and FT4YM in Antarctica. If you work any of them, send your reports to radcom@rsgb.org.uk
Next week, the solar flux index is predicted to climb slightly, perhaps peaking at 140, before heading back down to the 120 to 130 range at the end of the month.
Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to be settled next week, before becoming unsettled again on 28 January.
VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO
The current unsettled pattern looks likely to continue for the next week with low pressure nearby for much of the time, driving a series of rain-bearing fronts across the country.
This will provide some opportunities for rain scatter, although these fast-moving winter systems may need some delicate rotator work to keep track of them. Tropo seems unlikely to feature much, if at all, during the period.
The prospects for meteor scatter are best for random meteors around dawn since we are now entering a long period between important meteor showers. This will last through to the Lyrids in late April.
The solar conditions may be interesting due to a large sunspot group moving into view as the previous week closes, so don’t abandon hope of potential auroral activity and, as usual, monitor the Kp index for enhanced values above 5, ideally reaching 7 or better.
A final note about Sporadic-E which, last week, provided some mid-winter QSOs, including on the 4m band. This was encouraged by the stronger winter jet streams, although we are now moving out of that traditional winter window of activity.
Check the foEs trace on the propquest.co.uk graphs to be sure you don’t miss any final throes of the winter Sporadic-E season.
For EME operators, Moon declination is at minimum over this weekend and negative all next week, going positive again on 23 January. Path losses are falling and Moon window length and peak elevation are increasing. 144MHz sky noise was high from 16 January and the Sun and Moon are close in the sky today, the 18th. Sky noise will be low from tomorrow, 19 January, onwards.
And that’s all from the propagation team this week.
Category: GB2RS Propagation News
