Propagation News – 12 October 2014

| October 10, 2014

Solar activity was low every day with only C class solar flares taking place until the 9th when early in the morning two M1 class solar flares took place within 15 minutes of each other. Another M1 class flare occurred several hours later. These flares had very little effect on propagation. Solar flux levels declined from 137 units on the 3rd to 119 by the 9th, The average was 126 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 9th was 130, that’s five units down on last week. X-ray flux levels declined from C1.1 units on the 3rd to B3.5 by the 8th; the average was B5.3 units. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day, except for the 9th which increased to an Ap index of 14 units. The average was Ap 6 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds between 320 and 460 kilometres per second. Particle densities were low except for a brief increase during the morning of the 8th to above 80 particles per cubic centimetre. Bz varied between minus and plus 8 nanoTeslas on the 9th, which was the most disturbed day, and between minus and plus 4 nanoTeslas on the quietest days.

Now the solar forecast for the coming week. For the first half of the week the quiet side of the Sun is expected to be looking our way but later in the week the active side of the Sun should start to rotate into view. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels but could increase towards next weekend. Solar flux levels are expected to be slightly above the 100 mark at first but then increase later in the week to around the 130’s. Geomagnetic activity should be quiet for the next few days but then increase after midweek due to a recurring coronal hole. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 34MHz. Darkness hour lows should be about 11MHz. Paths this week to the Middle East should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 percent success rate of around 32MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 percent success rate of around 26MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 1000 and 1400 hours UTC.

And that’s all for another week from the propagation team.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News