Propagation News – 8 June 2014

Several small sunspot groups were visible every day but none were really very active, in fact, solar activity was very low on the 30th, the 2nd and again on the 5th. However, on the 3rd an M class solar flare occurred. In total only six C class solar flares took place. Solar flux levels struggled to increase, a slight increase from 102 units on the 30th to 111 by the 5th. The average was 105 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 5th was 138 units, that’s four units down on last week. X-ray flux levels varied little day to day and averaged B2.5 units. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day and the average Ap index was 6 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds vary between 280 and 390 kilometres per second. Particle densities were moderate every day with peaks to 51 particles per cubic centimetre, for example on the 2nd. Bz varied between minus and plus 10 nanoTeslas on the most disturbed day and between minus 4 and plus 6 nanoTeslas on the quietest day.

Finally, the solar forecast for the coming week. This week solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, however, later in the week activity may increase with the return of an old active region. Solar flux levels are expected to increase later in the week to the 120’s. Geomagnetic activity could start at unsettled levels due to a recurring coronal hole but then decline to quiet levels for the remainder of the week. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 23MHz. Darkness hour lows should be about 13MHz. Paths this week to the east coast of North America should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 percent success rate of around 21MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 percent success rate will be about 16MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 1600 and 2000 hours. Sporadic E is expected to take place on most days. Openings to 144MHz possible in any larger openings.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News