Propagation News – 16 October 2022

We had yet another week of good HF propagation, helped by reasonably settled geomagnetic conditions.

Although the week started relatively poorly with a Kp index of four all day on Sunday, that soon improved slightly and the rest of the week saw the Kp index hit only ones or twos.

The solar flux index declined from 161 on Sunday to 141 on Thursday, which is still more than enough for 10m openings at this time of year.

Solar activity was low. Active region 3112 underwent decay but managed several C-class flares. Region 3119 was stable and also produced a few C-class solar flares. The other regions were unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Low solar activity is expected to continue, with a chance for M-class flares on 13-15 October.

At the RSGB Convention in Milton Keynes, the special event station just outside the conference centre was able to work a string of US stations on 10m just to prove that this really is the month for Autumn DX.

The KQ2H repeater in the Catskill Mountains of upstate New York on 29.620MHz has also given many people their first taste of FM on 10m, along with characteristic phase distortion.

Other DX worked this week by well-equipped stations on 10m includes FK4QX in New Caledonia and TX7G on the Marquesas Islands. Hopefully, if conditions remain like this, it will make the CQ Worldwide SSB contest on the 29 and 30 October very interesting.

Next week NOAA predicts that the solar flux index may remain in the high 130s. After predicting slightly unsettled geomagnetic conditions on Saturday, NOAA says the Kp index should then fall from four to two until Wednesday the 19 October. The latter half of the week may become reasonably unsettled again with a Kp index of four. The US Air Force, however, predicts that this weekend should remain settled geomagnetically – we shall have to wait and see.

VHF and up

The current spell of unsettled weather will continue through much of the coming week. There may be a hint of a temporary high over the north and east of Britain around midweek, but this is unlikely to benefit western areas.

Any Tropo wins will probably be across the North Sea to Scandinavia and the Baltic region, but only from the easternmost counties of England and Scotland. The low-pressure systems which will dominate are likely to bring spells of heavy rain and passing showers at times. There may be some rain scatter possibilities from this unsettled weather, especially from heavy coastal showers.

The aurora propagation mode is always worth considering around the autumn months, so monitor the Kp index, and meteor scatter, particularly in the hours before dawn. The Orionids meteor shower peaks on Friday 21 October with a medium ZHR of 20 so look out for improved conditions around that date.

The Moon is at maximum declination today, Sunday, so Moon windows are at their longest, shortening as the week progresses. With apogee this coming Monday, path losses are at their highest. 144MHz sky noise is low all week.

Finally, a word about Sporadic-E, of which you may still hear examples on the HF bands as extra-loud short-skip from Europe.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News