Propagation

And now the solar factual data for the period from the 4th to the 10 of January, compiled by Neil Clarke, G0CAS on the 11th of January. 

During the period numerous sunspot regions appeared and on the 6th, fourteen regions were visible. Most were small and quiet, even some of the larger regions remained quiet. Solar activity was low every day, with numerous small C class solar flares taking place, except on the 6th when an M1 solar flare took place, increasing activity to moderate levels. Solar flux levels responded well and increased from 143 units on the 4th to peak at 174 units by the 10th. That’s the highest daily figure since the 11th of November 2011. The average was 148 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 10th was 121, that’s three units up on last week. Geomagnetic activity was very quiet every day, the most disturbed days were the 6th and 9th, with an Ap index of only 3 units. The average was Ap 2 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds vary between 290 and 360 kilometres per second. Particle densities were moderate to high most days, with 34 particles per cubic centimetre recorded on the 6th. Bz showed very little variation on any day.

And finally the solar forecast. At first the more active side of the Sun is expected to be looking our way before rotating out of view. There is a chance that solar activity could be moderate on some days, but certainly low on most days. Solar flux levels could decline dramatically and be around 110 units later in the week. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet, however, due to a small coronal hole activity could increase slightly during the next couple of days. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 26MHz for the south and 23MHz for the north. Darkness hour lows should be about 8MHz. Paths this week to India should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 per cent success rate of around 28MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 per cent success rate will be about 21MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 0900 and 1300 hours.

And that’s all for this week from the propagation team.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News