Propagation News – 15 November 2020

The Sun really shone last week, in more ways than one. Large sunspot group 2781 pushed the solar flux index to 91 with a sunspot number of 40 at the weekend, a figure that we haven’t seen for many years. This was coupled with quiet geomagnetic conditions with a maximum Kp index of two, but frequently it was at one or zero. These figures, coupled with a seasonal upturn in HF propagation, meant there was DX to be worked. 7Q7RU, the Russian Robinson Club DXpedition to Malawi, has been logged in the UK on many bands, including 15 metres. Australia has also put in an appearance on 10 metres, with VK6NC being worked on SSB with a 5 and 8 signal for Gary, G0FWX. New Zealand has also been workable on the short path with John, ZL2JBR being very loud on 20m SSB around 14.210 to 14.215MHz on many days around 0830 to 0930UTC.

There probably hasn’t been a better time for HF propagation for quite a few years. As this report was being written, new sunspot group 2782 was just showing around the edge of the Sun and this could develop as the weekend goes on. NOAA predicts the SFI will be in the range 78-80 next week, although this rather depends upon how region 2782 develops. Geomagnetic conditions are unlikely to be quite as quiet next week, with NOAA predicting a maximum Kp index of three, rising to five on Friday, the 20th. The first part of the week might therefore be the best choice for HF DXing.

VHF and up

The Leonids meteor shower reaches its peak in the hours before dawn on Tuesday, 17 November. So be ready for some good, but short-lived, meteor scatter conditions. The shower has a zenithal hourly rate of 15, but it is known for producing meteor storms at various times in recent history. The last Leonid Storm was in 2001, but the first great meteor storm of modern times was the 1833 Leonids, kicking off the scientific study of meteors.

The current spell of changeable weather is likely to set the template for terrestrial propagation this coming week. That is to say, periods of wet and windy weather when active weather fronts cross the country, interspersed by brighter showery interludes. All of these features are capable of providing some good rain scatter conditions on the GHz bands. Because of this unsettled pattern, high pressure is banished to the south of the UK over France, so if there are any vestiges of tropo it will be most likely from southern England across the Channel.

The Moon was at perigee yesterday, so path losses are still low, but with minimum declination on Wednesday, Moon visibility windows are short. 144MHz sky noise peaks at nearly 3300K on Tuesday but drops back to below 300K again by the end of next week.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News