Propagation News – 17 August 2014

All visible sunspot groups were small and not very flare productive. Only eight small C class solar flares took place up to the 11th, since then solar activity declined to very low levels with no C class solar flares taking place. Solar flux levels declined from 123 units on the 8th to 103 by the 13th and the 14th. The average was 108 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 14th was 127 units, that’s three units down on last week. X-ray flux levels declined from B4.8 units on the 8th to B2.5 by the 14th and the average was B3.4 units for the period. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day except for the 12th, which increased to Ap 10 units. The average was Ap 7 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds increase from 360 kilometres per second on the 8th to 560 by the 12th. Particle densities were low every day except for the 11th, which increased to 22 particles per cubic centimetre. Bz varied between minus 3 and plus 4 nanoTeslas on the quietest day and between minus 10 and plus 8 nanoTeslas on the 12th, which was the most disturbed day.

Now the solar forecast for the coming week. This week solar activity is expected to be at low levels, however, an M class solar flare is slightly possible on any day. Solar flux levels are expected to be around the 100 mark but could increase slightly after midweek. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly quiet but could increase slightly towards next weekend due to a small recurring coronal hole. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 22MHz. Paths this week to Australia should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 per cent success rate of around 21MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 per cent success rate should be about 16MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 0800 and 1100 hours UTC.
And that’s all from the propagation team for another week.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News