Propagation News 1 December 2013

Solar activity was low every day except for the 23rd when activity increased to moderate levels as two M class solar flares took place. Numerous C class solar flares took place at first but this dropped to just a couple a day later in the period. Solar flux levels declined from 143 units on the 22nd to 116 by the 26th but then recovered to 133 units by the 28th. The average was 129 units. The 90 solar flux average on the 28th was 128 units, that’s two units up on last week. X-ray flux levels declined slightly from B5.3 units on the 22nd to B4.5 on the 26th. The average was B4.9 units. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day, in fact, an Ap index on the last four days was only one unit. The average was Ap 2 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds decline from 380 to a very slow 260 kilometres per second by the 26th. Particle densities were low and remained below 10 particles per cubic centimetre throughout. Bz showed only minor variations every day.

Finally, the solar forecast for the coming week. This week the more active side of the Sun will rotate into view and several large complex sunspot regions are expected to be seen. Solar activity is expected to increase and be around the 160s later in the week. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet at first but after midweek but due to a recurring coronal hole activity is expected to increase. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 30MHz or slightly higher. Darkness hour lows should be about 8MHz. Paths this week to India should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 per cent success rate of around 32MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 per cent success rate will be about 26MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 0900 and 1200 UTC.

And that’s all for this week from the propagation team.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News