New sunspot regions appeared every day, some of which produced solar flares of varying strengths. Solar activity was low on most days but increased to high on the 29th when a X1 class flare took place and again on the 2nd when an M6 class solar flare occurred. In total 58 C class solar flares took place. Solar flux levels increased from 143 units on the 29th to 155 by the 2nd; the average was 150 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 3rd remained at the same level as last week at 159 units. X-ray flux levels increased from B5 units on the 28th to B9.1 by the 31st before declining slightly by the end of the period. The average was B6.9 units. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day. The most disturbed day was the 31st, with an Ap index of 8 units. The average was 6 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds decline from 490 kilometres per second on the 29th to 350 by the 1st. Particle densities were low every day except for the 29th and the 30th, which increased to 14 particles per cubic centimetre on both days. Bz never varied more than minus and plus 6 nanoTeslas during the period.
Finally, the solar forecast for the coming week. This week the quiet side of the Sun is expected to be looking our way. Solar activity should be at low levels with only a small chance of activity increasing to moderate levels with a M class solar flare taking place. Solar flux levels are expected to decline to the 130s. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with no coronal hole disturbances expected and a low chance of a coronal mass ejection heading our way. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 30MHz or slightly higher. Darkness hour lows should be about 14MHz. Paths this week to South Africa should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 percent success rate of around 36MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 percent success rate will be about 30MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 1000 and 1600 hours UTC.
Category: GB2RS Propagation News