On the 27th a large sunspot region rotated into view over the south east limb and with it solar activity increased from low levels to moderate levels when M class solar flares took place from this new region. Activity increased to high on the 28th when seven M class flares took place and again on the 30th when a M6 class solar flare occurred. In total, 13 M class and 43 C class flares took place during the period. Solar flux levels increased from 133 units on the 25th to 161 by the 30th. The average was 146 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 30th was 152 units, that’s down the same level as the previous week. X-ray flux levels increased from B3.8 units on the 24th to C1.4 by the 28th, the average was B9.4 units. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day and the average was Ap 4 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds vary between a slow 290 kilometres per second and 530. Particle densities were low everyday. Bz varied between minus 3 and plus 5 nanoTeslas on the quietest day and between minus and plus 7 nanoTeslas on the remaining days.
Finally, the solar forecast for the coming week. This week, with the active side of the Sun facing our way, solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on most days with a small chance that activity could increase to high on the occasional day. Solar flux levels are expected to increase into the 170s. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet levels but activity should increase slightly towards next weekend. However, there is a slight chance that if an Earth directed coronal mass ejection took place then activity would increase. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 36MHz. Darkness hour lows should be about 9MHz. Paths this week to India should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 per cent success rate of around 35MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 per cent success rate will be about 29MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 0800and 1300 hours UTC.
And that’s all for this week from the propagation team.
Category: GB2RS Propagation News