Propagation News

| November 11, 2012

And now the solar factual data for the period from Friday the 2nd to the 8th of November compiled by Neil Clarke, G0CAS on Friday the 9th of November.

Solar activity was mostly very low but increased to low on the 5th when a single C class solar flare took place, and moderate on the 8th when a M1 solar flare took place rather unexpectedly. Solar flux levels declined to 93 units on the 3rd but then increased every day to 104 units by the 8th. The average was 98 units. The 90 day solar flux average on the 8th was 117 units, that’s three units down on last week. X-ray flux levels varied little day to day and the average was B2 units. Geomagnetic activity was quiet every day except for the 7th, when a small coronal hole disturbance took place. The Ap on the 7th was 11 units and the average was Ap 5 units. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft saw solar wind speeds around 300 kilometres per second until speeds increased to 540 kilometres per second on the 7th. Particle densities were low but increased to 24 particles per cubic centimetre on the 6th. Bz showed little variation whilst the magnetic field was quiet, but fluctuations of minus and plus 12 nanoTeslas took place on the 7th during the disturbance. For an explanation of the terms used in this report, refer to page 136 of the 2013 RSGB Yearbook.

And finally the solar forecast for the coming week. This week the slightly more active side of the Sun is expected to rotate into view. Solar activity should increase to low levels most days with also a chance of moderate levels on some days. Solar flux levels should increase and be in the 120s later in the week. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet every day, however later in the week a coronal hole disturbance could take place. MUFs during daylight hours at equal latitudes should be around 33MHz for the south and 30MHz for the north. Darkness hour lows should be about 9MHz. Paths this week to Japan should have a maximum usable frequency with a 50 per cent success of around 24MHz. The optimum working frequency with a 90 per cent success rate will be about 20MHz. The best time to try this path will be between 0700 and 1000 hours UTC.

And that’s all for this week from the propagation team.

Category: GB2RS Propagation News

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